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Estimating Uncertain Flow and Transport Parameters Using a Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Procedure

^a Swiss Federal Inst. for Environmental Science and Technology (EAWAG), Ueberlandstrasse 133, P.O. Box 611, CH-8600 Dübendorf, Switzerland
^b USDA-ARS, George E. Brown, Jr. Salinity Lab., 450 West Big Springs Road, Riverside, CA 92507

View larger version (28K): [in a new window]   Fig. 1. Water retention and hydraulic conductivity curves as used in MACRO.

View larger version (14K): [in a new window]   Fig. 2. An example showing the partitioning of a response signal into different compartments: base flow (c1), the recession or rise (c2), intermediate peaks (c3), and large peaks (c4). The weights are calculated such that each compartment contributes equally to the objective function.

View larger version (33K): [in a new window]   Fig. 3. Calibration results for flow and transport at Lostorf. The blue curves represent the 95% prediction uncertainty (95PPU), the red curve represents the measured data, and the green curve shows the best fit of optimization.

View larger version (28K): [in a new window]   Fig. 4. Test results of flow and transport at Lostorf. The blue curves represent the 95% prediction uncertainty (95PPU), the red curve represents the measured data, and the green curve shows the best fit of optimization.

View larger version (30K): [in a new window]   Fig. 5. (A) Calibration and (B) test results for flow at Seckenberg. The blue curves represent the 95% prediction uncertainty (95PPU), the red curve represents the measured data, and the green curve shows the best fit of optimization.

View larger version (70K): [in a new window]   Fig. 6. The d-3–hb-3 response surface obtained after 2000 simulations. All other parameters were kept constant.

View larger version (92K): [in a new window]   Fig. 7. The d-3–b-3 response surface obtained after 2000 simulations. All other parameters were kept constant.

View larger version (88K): [in a new window]   Fig. 8. The d-3–n* response surface obtained after 2000 simulations. All other parameters were kept constant.

View larger version (69K): [in a new window]   Fig. 9. The d-3–n* response surface obtained after 10000 simulations. All other parameters were kept constant.

View larger version (78K): [in a new window]   Fig. 10. The d-3–b response surface obtained after 10000 simulations. Parameters d-3, b-3, hb-3, and n* were varied simultaneously, while all others were kept constant.