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Published online 8 March 2006
Published in Vadose Zone J 5:168-183 (2006)
DOI: 10.2136/vzj2005.0015
© 2006 Soil Science Society of America
677 S. Segoe Rd., Madison, WI 53711 USA
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Spatial Analysis of Model Error, Illustrated by Soil Carbon Dioxide Emissions

M. J. Pringle* and R. M. Lark

Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, Hertfordshire, AL5 2JQ, UK

Figure 1
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Fig. 1. The inter-block correlation between two hypothetical variables. In the first simulation, the structural correlation between the two variables increases with spatial scale, and the best pixel size for aggregation is approximately 80 units. In the second simulation, the structural correlation between the two variables is strongest at an intermediate spatial scale, and the best pixel size for aggregation is as small as possible.

 

Figure 2
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Fig. 2. Map of Great Britain, indicating the location of Silsoe, the site of the case study. Map provided by Ordnance Survey (www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/).

 

Figure 3
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Fig. 3. Histograms and summary statistics of: (a) observed soil CO2 flux, Fco2o; (b) log. of observed soil CO2 flux, ln Fco2o; (c) predicted soil CO2 flux, Fco2p; (d) log. of predicted soil CO2 flux, ln Fco2p; (e) model error, {varepsilon}; and (f) error of the log. of the fluxes, {varepsilon}ln.

 

Figure 4
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Fig. 4. (a) Log. of observed soil CO2 flux (ln Fco2o) vs. log. of predicted soil CO2 flux (ln Fco2p), and summary statistics; and (b) ln Fco2o and ln Fco2p by position on the transect. ME = mean error (observed – predicted), RMSE = root-mean-square-error, rPM = product-moment correlation, and rMVE = correlation based on a minimum-volume ellipsoid estimate of the covariance matrix (Rousseeuw, 1985).

 

Figure 5
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Fig. 5. (a) Auto-variogram of log. of observed soil CO2 flux (ln Fco2o), (b) auto-variogram of log. of predicted soil CO2 flux (ln Fco2p), and (c) cross-variogram of ln Fco2o and ln Fco2p. Solid lines are the fits from the linear model of coregionalization. Part (d) shows the codispersion function and structural correlations associated with (a) to (c).

 

Figure 6
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Fig. 6. (a) Log. of observed soil CO2 flux (ln Fco2o) vs. log. of predicted soil CO2 flux (ln Fco2p), and summary statistics, after removal of nugget variation; and (b) ln Fco2o and ln Fco2p by position on the transect, after removal of nugget variation. ME = mean error (observed – predicted), RMSE = root-mean-square-error.

 

Figure 7
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Fig. 7. (a) Variogram of model error ({varepsilon}ln) with model estimated directly, and model implied from the linear model of coregionalization; and (b) model error cokriged over blocks the extent of each soil type.

 

Figure 8
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Fig. 8. Scatterplots of model error ({varepsilon}ln) (ordinate) and (a) soil organic carbon (C) content, (b) soil clay content, and (c) soil volumetric water content ({theta}v).

 

Figure 9
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Fig. 9. The inter-block correlation of log. of observed soil CO2 flux (ln Fco2o) and log. of predicted soil CO2 flux (ln Fco2p). The best pixel size for aggregation is 10 to 20 m.

 





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