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Climatic Forecasting of Net Infiltration at Yucca Mountain Using Analogue Meteorological Data

Earth Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab., Berkeley, CA 94720

View larger version (60K): [in this window] [in a new window]   Fig. 1. Locations of the Yucca Mountain analog meteorological stations.

View larger version (35K): [in this window] [in a new window]   Fig. 2. Changes in mean annual temperature (MAT) and mean annual precipitation (MAP), using data from analog meteorological stations (see Tables 2 and 3). Open circles are the MAT and MAP data for interglacial (present-day) climate from the Yucca Mountain Meteorological Sites 2 and 5.

View larger version (31K): [in this window] [in a new window]   Fig. 3. Plots of the relationship between the evaporation (E)/precipitation (P) ratio and the aridity index (Eo/P) calculated from different semiempirical formulae, illustrating that Budyko's curve (Eq. [6]) is in the middle of curves from other formulae.

View larger version (23K): [in this window] [in a new window]   Fig. 4. Comparison of experimental data with analytical curves by Zhang et al. (2001) and Milly (1994). Figure is reproduced from Zhang et al. (2001).

View larger version (32K): [in this window] [in a new window]   Fig. 5. Net infiltration index (net infiltration as a percentage of precipitation) for different reference potential evapotranspiration (Eo) values (given on the curves in millimeters per year), calculated from Eq. [10] using the Budyko model (Eq. [6]).

View larger version (22K): [in this window] [in a new window]   Fig. 6. Relationship between calculated net infiltration and precipitation, showing the names of analog meteorological stations and climates. Also shown are the forecast data (black dots) and the power-law regression line (Eq. [16]); L indicates the lower bound climate state, and U, the upper bound climate state.

View larger version (46K): [in this window] [in a new window]   Fig. 7. Climatic ranking of ranges of forecast net infiltration index (upper panel), and net infiltration (lower panel) for different climates. On the lower panel, for the present-day (interglacial) climate, red dashed lines show the ranges of the percolation flux from calculations using a Cl mass balance model (solid diamonds), calcite mass model (open diamonds), temperature data (closed circles), and experts' evaluation (solid triangles).

View larger version (27K): [in this window] [in a new window]   Fig. 8. Climatic ranking of (a) the annual average aridity index, and (b) precipitation-effectiveness (P-E) index. Relationships of (c) the aridity index vs. net infiltration index, and (d) the P-E index vs. net infiltration index.

View larger version (32K): [in this window] [in a new window]   Fig. 9. Correlation between the results of calculations of reference potential evapotranspiration (Eo) using the Penman (1948) model with those from the Priestley and Taylor (1972) equation and adjusted evaporation from Class A evaporation pans at analog meteorological stations.

View larger version (20K): [in this window] [in a new window]   Fig. 10. Comparison of climatic forecasting of net infiltration vs. precipitation with groundwater recharge from published data.