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Quantifying the Influence of Uncertainty and Variability on Groundwater Risk Assessment for Trace Elements

^a Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources, Stilleweg 2, D-30655 Hannover, Germany
^b Dep. of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, Univ. of Hohenheim, D-70593 Stuttgart, Germany

View larger version (32K): [in this window] [in a new window]   FIG. 1. Generated cumulative density functions (CDF) of pH and Corg with uncertainties in a single soil layer of a set of random columns.

View larger version (16K): [in this window] [in a new window]   FIG. 2. Cumulative density function (CDF) of Freundlich coefficient K (log scale, left panel; carteisian, right panel) in one soil layer of the random soil columns with uncertainty (same layer as in Fig. 1).

View larger version (47K): [in this window] [in a new window]   FIG. 3. Aggregation scheme for quantifying the distribution of field-averaged concentration depth profiles from local profiles.

View larger version (19K): [in this window] [in a new window]   FIG. 4. Boundary conditions for the wastewater irrigation site near Braunschweig, Germany.

View larger version (20K): [in this window] [in a new window]   FIG. 5. The sorbed and dissolved Cd-concentration profiles measured at the site in Braunschweig, Germany, sorbed and dissolved concentrations predicted with the local extended Freundlich equation (Streck and Richter, 1997b) as well as the depth distribution (including the 95% confidence interval) predicted with the extended Cd–Freundlich equation derived by Utermann et al. (2005).

View larger version (17K): [in this window] [in a new window]   FIG. 6. Boundary conditions for the site near the metal smelter facility in Nordenham, Germany.

View larger version (25K): [in this window] [in a new window]   FIG. 7. The sorbed Cd-concentration profile measured at Nordenham, Germany, sorbed concentrations predicted with the local extended Freundlich equation (Beyer, 2002) as well as the depth distribution (including the 95% confidence interval) predicted with the extended Cd–Freundlich equation derived by Utermann et al. (2005).

View larger version (19K): [in this window] [in a new window]   FIG. A1. Measured and predicted Cd concentrations in the sorbed phase for the 133 nationwide monitoring sites in Germany investigated by Utermann et al. (2005). Sorbed concentration (S) predicted was obtained by multiple linear regression between the dependant variable S measured and the independent variables pH, Corg, and clay using Eq. [A1] (Utermann et al., 2005).

View larger version (27K): [in this window] [in a new window]   FIG. A2. Box plot of the on-site errors in the predicted sorbed concentration S (extended Cd–Freundlich equation based on Corg, pH, and clay).

View larger version (56K): [in this window] [in a new window]   FIG. A3. Diagnostic ANOVA plots to characterize the distribution of the on-site residuals.

View larger version (16K): [in this window] [in a new window]   FIG. A4. Histogram and quantile–quantile plot of the site-specific residual ANOVA-means.

View larger version (15K): [in this window] [in a new window]   FIG. A5. Cumulative density functions (CDF) of the residual error 1 + 2 of the extended Freundlich equation for one soil layer of the random soil columns with uncertainty (same layer as in Fig. 1).